Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”