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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.